Polyvinyl chloride enters H2 2026 at approximately $980/tonne, up 3% year-over-year, as global construction demand grows 2.5%. PVC consumption is 70% correlated with construction activity, particularly window profiles, piping, and wire/cable.
Chinese property sector weakness is the primary demand headwind. China consumes 45% of global PVC, and property starts are down 15% year-over-year. Government stimulus measures targeting property completion are supporting demand recovery.
Ethylene and chlorine feedstock costs represent 80% of PVC production costs. Chlorine prices at $350/t are elevated due to caustic soda production economics (chlor-alkali co-product balance).
US PVC exports are forecast at 4 Mt, with Latin America and Asia the primary destinations. US Gulf Coast PVC remains globally competitive due to ethane-based ethylene costs.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $900-1,100/t.
PVC buyers should secure H2 requirements at $950-1,050/t through fixed contracts. Construction demand provides structural support. For pipe and profile extruders, consider inventory management during property stimulus announcements. Budget $900-1,150/t for 2027.