The global PVC resin market entered the second half of 2026 near its cycle floor, and the trajectory offers little reason to expect a breakout. After holding a narrow band through 2025 — edging from USD 0.93/kg in Q1 up to USD 0.95/kg in Q3 before easing to USD 0.92/kg by Q4 — Q1 2026 held flat at USD 0.92/kg, according to Expert Market Research.
The pattern through 2025 and into 2026 has been described as a 'shallow drift' rather than any sharp break. This tells you that supply discipline was missing and demand was simply not strong enough to clear the surplus. Chinese carbide-route PVC production — structurally lower cost than ethylene-based production in the West — continues to set a global price ceiling.
RTi's senior business unit leader for PVC, cited in Plastics Technology, noted that after cumulative increases of about 8 cents per pound in March and April, PVC prices were expected to be flat or even down by late May. The reason: 'China flooding the global PVC market.' US domestic supplier inventories dropped by more than 300 million pounds due to pre-buying in April, which pulled forward demand that would otherwise have supported prices later in the year.
Regional variation is significant. North America saw the longest slide, with prices dropping from USD 0.95/kg in Q2 2025 to USD 0.82/kg by Q1 2026 as export competition from Asia and a soft US housing market piled on. Europe's price index showed a consistent downward trend driven by sufficient supply and moderated demand from construction and automotive sectors, per IMARC.
The PVC market is decisively in buyers' territory through at least Q3 2026. The combination of Chinese oversupply, weak construction demand in Europe and the Americas, and cautious downstream procurement creates a favorable negotiating environment. Buyers should favor shorter-term or indexed contracts into H2 2026 to capture potential further softening while avoiding full spot exposure. Use regional benchmarks as negotiation anchors: North America at USD 0.82/kg, Europe at USD 927-957/mt, China at USD 735/mt. Emphasize to suppliers that the market is well-supplied and the trajectory is flat-to-down. The upside risks to monitor: a faster-than-expected construction recovery in any major market, tightness in VCM or ethylene feedstock (forecast at USD 0.72-0.86/kg for the rest of 2026), or anti-dumping actions against Chinese imports that could tighten regional balances. India's countervailing duty investigation into Chinese PVC suspension resin is one to watch specifically.