Propylene enters H2 2026 at approximately $950/tonne, up 6% year-over-year, as global demand grows 3.8% to 130 Mt. Propylene serves as the building block for polypropylene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, cumene, and oxo-alcohols.
On-purpose propylene production via propane dehydrogenation (PDH) is forecast at 35 Mt globally, up 10%, with China the dominant capacity adder. PDH economics depend on propane-propylene spreads.
FCC (fluid catalytic cracking) units in refineries are the primary propylene source at 65% of supply. FCC yield optimization for maximum propylene is increasingly common when propylene-propane spreads are favorable.
Chinese propylene imports are declining as domestic PDH and MTO (methanol-to-olefins) capacity expands. However, specialty chemical demand maintains import requirements.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $900-1,100/t.
Propylene buyers should secure H2 requirements at $920-980/t through fixed contracts. PDH capacity growth provides supply flexibility. For chemical producers, consider propane-propylene spread optimization. Budget $900-1,150/t for 2027.