Polyethylene enters H2 2026 with HDPE at $1,150/t and LDPE at $1,100/t, up 3-4% year-over-year. Global PE demand is forecast at 120 Mt in 2026, up 3.5% from 2025.
US PE exports are forecast at 8 Mt, up 6%, as Gulf Coast capacity from ethane crackers remains globally competitive. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are the other major export sources.
Ethylene feedstock costs at $850/t represent 65-70% of PE production costs. The ethane-ethylene-PE chain margin has averaged $250-300/t, supporting producer economics.
Film applications (packaging, agricultural, construction) consume 65% of PE production. E-commerce growth drives corrugated and stretch film demand at 5-6% annually.
Price projections for H2 2026: HDPE $1,100-1,250/t, LDPE $1,050-1,200/t.
PE buyers should secure H2 requirements at $1,100-1,200/t through fixed contracts. Ethylene costs provide a price floor. For film converters, consider LLDPE-mLDPE optimization for performance-cost balance. Budget $1,100-1,300/t for 2027.