Potash enters H2 2026 at approximately $300/tonne, down 5% year-over-year, as supply from Belarus and Russia normalizes following the disruption of 2022-2024. Global potash trade is forecast at 72 Mt in 2026, up 5% year-over-year.
Canada, the world's largest producer, is forecast at 42 Mt in 2026, up 8% as Nutrien and Mosaic expand capacity. Nutrien's Guido and Vanscoy mines are ramping production, while Mosaic's Esterhazy K3 mine reached full capacity in Q1 2026.
Belarusian exports, sanctioned since 2022, have found alternative routes through Russian ports and are estimated at 12 Mt for 2026, recovering toward pre-conflict levels of 13-14 Mt. Russian production is stable at 14-15 Mt.
Demand is supported by agricultural planting intentions. Global potash consumption is forecast at 70 Mt, with growth concentrated in Latin America (Brazil, Argentina) and Southeast Asia.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $280-330/t.
Potash buyers should secure H2 requirements at $280-310/t through fixed contracts. The ample Canadian supply creates a price ceiling. For agricultural distributors, consider pre-harvest contracts at $290-310/t. Budget $280-340/t for 2027 as global capacity expands.