Urea enters H2 2026 at approximately $620/tonne, up 53% year-over-year, as the World Bank forecasts an average of $700/t for 2026 — the highest real level since 2022. Global urea output reached 201 Mt in 2024, growing 3% year-over-year.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption poses a critical risk to fertilizer trade. Approximately 16 Mt/year of seaborne fertilizer transits the strait — roughly one-third of global trade. Urea exports via Hormuz represent approximately 40% of global supply.
China's domestic urea prices are subsidized at approximately $272/t, well below global spot levels. India's CFR prices sit at $320/t, reflecting lagged contract pricing. Northeast Asian spot prices have softened to $380/t as seasonal demand moderates.
Global ammonia output reached 190.5 Mt in 2024, up 3% year-over-year, with natural gas feedstock costs the primary price driver. The fertilizer market is valued at approximately $200 billion annually.
World Bank price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $580-700/t.
Urea buyers should secure H2 requirements at $580-650/t through fixed contracts. The Hormuz risk premium and agricultural demand create upside risk. For agricultural distributors, lock in pre-season supply before planting demand peaks. Budget $600-750/t for 2027 as natural gas costs and food demand support prices.