Potash markets are entering the second half of 2026 with a firm pricing tone, supported by concentrated supply from Canada, Belarus, and Russia, steady demand from Brazil’s agricultural sector and India’s subsidy-supported procurement, and a market structure that remains vulnerable to supply disruptions. Argus assesses granular muriate of potash (MOP) as nearing or exceeding $400/t CFR into Brazil, with India at approximately $591/t CFR and China at $523/t CFR as of May-June 2026.
Supply concentration is the defining structural feature. Canada, Belarus, and Russia together control over 60% of global potash production capacity. Canpotex, the Canadian export cartel, has agreed supply contracts with India and China at prices that anchor the global benchmark. The India contract was settled at approximately $230/t CFR on a standard MOP basis, though realized prices for granular material in spot trade run significantly higher due to quality premia and logistics costs.
Belarusian and Russian exports remain below pre-sanction levels. Belarus Potash Company (BPC) has rerouted volumes through Russian Baltic ports and Chinese rail corridors, but logistical bottlenecks persist. Russian producer Uralkali has maintained most of its production capacity but faces ongoing payment and shipping friction. The net effect is that the global potash market is operating below maximum capacity, with supply-demand balance tight enough to support firm pricing.
BHP’s Jansen Stage 1 project in Saskatchewan is now 75% complete, with first production expected in mid-2027 at a capacity of 4.15 Mt/yr. BHP confirmed in January 2026 that the total investment has increased to $8.4 billion but that the underlying EBITDA margins remain strong at 63-64% due to low production costs under $140/t. Jansen Stage 2 is advancing, with a potential ultimate capacity of 16-17 Mt/yr across stages. But Jansen will not add supply until 2027 at the earliest, so the current market must operate within existing capacity.
Demand is being driven by Brazilian agricultural expansion, India’s large-scale subsidy program, and steady Chinese offtake under annual contracts. Brazil is the world’s largest potash importer, and its Safrinha corn and soybean crops drive seasonal demand peaks. India’s Union Cabinet approved $4.49 billion in phosphate and potash subsidies for Kharif 2026, with potash-specific support ensuring that import procurement continues at robust levels despite elevated global prices.
The IFA’s November 2025 short-term outlook projected potash capacity growth of 5% in 2026 over 2024 levels, but actual available supply has been constrained by logistical and geopolitical factors. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 did not directly affect potash (which ships primarily via Atlantic and Pacific routes) as much as nitrogen and phosphate, but the broader shipping disruption and elevated freight costs have affected all fertilizer trade.
The bull case for H2 2026: continued strong Brazilian seasonal demand, delayed Jansen first production until 2028, and further Belarusian export constraints push MOP CFR Brazil above $450/t. The bear case: a global economic slowdown reduces fertilizer application rates, combined with Canpotex maintaining market share discipline, keeping prices in the $300-350/t CFR range. The base case: granular MOP trades in a $370-420/t CFR Brazil range for H2 2026, with India contracts rolling over near current levels and Jansen’s production timeline becoming the key medium-term catalyst.
Potash procurement in H2 2026 requires a two-track strategy. For near-term coverage (Q3-Q4 2026), target MOP CFR Brazil at or below $400/t. The seasonal peak is approaching, and Brazilian demand will keep the market tight through October. For 2027 coverage, the Jansen first production schedule (mid-2027) is the key variable. If BHP confirms on-schedule delivery, forward contracts should be structured with price reopeners tied to post-Jansen market levels. Indian buyers should front-load H1 2027 import contracts before Jansen supply changes the market structure. For North American buyers, domestic potash from Canpotex has a substantial freight advantage over offshore supply — lock in annual contracts now before the fall season tightening. The supply concentration risk (Canada, Belarus, Russia >60% of global capacity) means every procurement strategy should include origin diversification clauses. Consider indexing at least 30% of potash contracts to a broad MOP benchmark rather than a single-origin price to capture future supply normalization benefits.