Diammonium phosphate (DAP) enters H2 2026 at approximately $710/tonne, up 15% year-over-year, as global phosphate fertilizer demand grows 3% to 52 Mt. Global DAP production is forecast at 50 Mt in 2026.
Morocco (OCP Group) controls 45% of global phosphate rock reserves and 30% of DAP trade. OCP's expansion program targets 20 Mt/year of phosphate products by 2030, up from 15 Mt currently.
Sulfur feedstock costs, at $180/t, represent 25-30% of DAP production costs. Sulfur supply from Middle East gas processing is constrained by Hormuz disruption, creating cost pressure.
Indian DAP imports are forecast at 5 Mt, down 10% as domestic production expands and nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) policy adjusts farmer incentives toward alternative phosphorus sources.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $650-780/t.
DAP buyers should secure H2 requirements at $680-740/t through fixed contracts. Moroccan supply dominance and sulfur costs provide price support. For agricultural distributors, consider MAP-DAP substitution based on soil pH requirements. Budget $650-800/t for 2027.