Anhydrous ammonia enters H2 2026 at approximately $610/tonne, up 22% year-over-year, as global production reaches 190 Mt. Ammonia is the foundational nitrogen fertilizer, with 80% of production converted to urea, UAN, or other nitrogen products.
Natural gas feedstock costs, representing 70-80% of production costs, are the primary price driver. At $6/MMBtu natural gas, ammonia production costs sit at $450-500/t. Middle East producers with $3-4/MMBtu gas have significant cost advantages.
Global ammonia trade is forecast at 25 Mt, with Middle East exports (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) at 12 Mt and Trinidad at 4 Mt. Black Sea ammonia exports are declining due to logistics disruption.
Green ammonia (from renewable hydrogen) is emerging as a marine fuel and hydrogen carrier, but commercial volumes are negligible in 2026. Pilot projects in Australia, Chile, and Oman target 2028-2030 commercialization.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $550-680/t.
Ammonia buyers should secure H2 requirements at $580-640/t through fixed contracts. Natural gas costs provide a price floor. For fertilizer blenders, consider urea-ammonia substitution based on application timing. Budget $550-700/t for 2027.