Copper traders are once again scouring the world for metal to send to the US, as renewed speculation about import tariffs revives a trade that has upended the $300 billion-a-year market. The anticipation of refined-copper tariffs has triggered a wave of strategic repositioning, with traders, smelters, and institutional investors shifting inventories toward US exchanges.
COMEX warehouses now hold a record 450,000 tonnes of copper — approximately half of all global exchange stocks. In contrast, inventories in London and Shanghai have decreased by more than 55% since August 2025, leaving procurement teams in Europe and Asia facing acute shortage despite seemingly high global visible stocks.
The US Commerce Secretary is expected to make a recommendation on copper tariffs by June 2026, with Goldman Sachs' base case projecting a 25% tariff on refined copper implemented shortly after. Analyst Warren Patterson of ING notes that tariff uncertainty and arbitrage have created a location premium that is repricing the entire global copper supply chain.