The International Copper Study Group’s preliminary data for January through May 2026 confirms what the physical market has been signaling: refined copper production is not keeping up with demand. The 150,000-tonne deficit is driven by a structural shortfall in concentrate supply. Global mine production grew just 1.4% year-over-year, constrained by grade declines in Chile, permitting delays in Peru, and the shutdown of First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mine.
Refined copper output increased 2.1% year-over-year, with Chinese smelters accounting for nearly all of the growth. But smelter utilization is being limited by concentrate availability. Spot treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) remain near $5.50 per dry metric tonne — the lowest in over a decade — as smelters compete for limited concentrate. Several Chinese smelters have announced maintenance shutdowns in Q3, which will further constrain refined output.
On the demand side, Chinese apparent copper usage grew 3.5% year-over-year through May. The composition of demand is shifting: construction-related copper use (wiring, plumbing) is flat to slightly down, but grid investment, renewable energy, and electric vehicle production are growing at double-digit rates. Outside China, demand was up an estimated 1.8%, led by India and Southeast Asia.
The concentrate deficit is not a short-term problem. The pipeline of new copper mine projects is thin — the ICSG estimates that projects currently under construction will add roughly 1.5 million tonnes of annual capacity by 2028, against expected demand growth of 2.0-2.5 million tonnes over the same period. Unless scrap supply increases dramatically or demand growth slows, the deficit is structural.
The ICSG deficit data confirms that copper’s fundamentals are tightening, not loosening. A 150,000-tonne deficit through May annualizes to roughly 360,000 tonnes — a meaningful shortfall in a 26-million-tonne market. Buyers should factor structural tightness into their H2 2026 and 2027 budgeting. The concentrate constraint means refined production cannot grow fast enough to close the gap. Contract coverage at current prices, especially for 2027 volumes, is worth evaluating now rather than waiting for a price spike to force the decision.