The copper tariff trade is back. Front-month COMEX contracts have risen to more than $500 per ton above LME cash prices for the first time since last autumn, reviving the arbitrage that upended the $300 billion market in 2025. Traders are once again scouring global warehouses for metal to ship to the United States, several executives told Bloomberg this week.
Trafigura last week moved to withdraw hundreds of millions of dollars of copper from LME warehouses, at least in part to capture premium COMEX prices. 'We're in the same situation as last year, where all tons are being directed to the US,' said Henry Van, head of industrial metals analysis at Trafigura Group. Executives predict imports could bounce back to 150,000–200,000 tons per month if the tariff threat persists.
The White House deferred a decision on refined copper tariffs until June, maintaining what Reuters calls 'tariff roulette' for the market. While refined copper was ultimately exempted last year, the risk of reinstated tariffs — with a potential 15% tariff hike under review — continues to support the COMEX/LME arbitrage. Enthusiasm around AI has lifted investor positioning on COMEX to the most bullish since December 2020.