The raw inventory numbers look staggering. Combined copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX pushed above 1 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 — a level not seen since the early 2000s. But the composition of that pile tells a far more nuanced story. (FACT: Reuters, S&P Global, May 2026)
COMEX warehouses in the United States have absorbed the vast majority of inflows, reaching over 500,000 tonnes by early 2026, compared with less than 100,000 tonnes just one year earlier. The flood of metal into US warehouses is widely attributed to anticipatory stockpiling ahead of tariff actions, not a genuine surplus of refined copper. Market participants report that traders rushed to land metal on US soil before potential import duties took effect, creating an artificial inventory bulge that has distorted global price relationships. (FACT: S&P Global, Fastmarkets, May 2026)
Meanwhile, LME stocks in the rest of the world have dwindled to below 100,000 tonnes — historically low by any measure. SHFE on-warrant stocks in China sit around 192,000–200,000 tonnes, providing only modest buffer for the world's largest consumer. The divergence is stark: enough copper to satisfy US tariff logistics, but not enough to cover genuine physical demand in Europe and Asia. This regional bifurcation has widened the COMEX-LME arbitrage window and introduced new basis risk for global buyers. (FACT: TradingEconomics, Fastmarkets, May 2026)
The inventory data demands a regional rather than global lens. Buyers sourcing for European or Asian delivery cannot rely on the headline inventory surplus as cover — the metal sitting in COMEX warehouses is effectively trapped by tariff dynamics and may not be economically deliverable to non-US destinations. For non-US procurement teams, the relevant metric is LME and SHFE availability, which remains uncomfortably tight. We recommend segmenting supply assurance strategies by region: build buffer stocks for Asian and European exposure, and monitor the COMEX-LME spread for potential dislocation opportunities. The inventory normalisation that many expected in H2 2025 has not materialised, and the risk of a regional squeeze outside the US is rising.