LME copper edged up to $13,194 per metric tonne on June 26, recovering from the $13,182 close on June 25 that marked a two-week low. The modest 0.1% gain masks a more significant rotation: COMEX copper surged 3.2% to $6.13 per pound, its largest single-day gain in over a week, as traders covered short positions ahead of the weekend.
The divergence between exchanges tells a story. LME copper remains under pressure from a strengthening dollar and macro risk-off positioning. But COMEX copper — more sensitive to US physical demand — caught a bid as US construction and manufacturing data held better than expected through June. SHFE copper at ¥104,620 per tonne is up 0.9%, reflecting the tightness in China’s physical market where cathode premiums have widened.
The broader picture hasn’t changed: copper is down roughly 4% for the week and 7% from its early-June peak above $14,200. The selloff was driven by macro factors — rate expectations, dollar strength, and a rotation out of commodities — rather than deterioration in copper’s own fundamentals. LME inventories remain below 150,000 tonnes, well under the levels that would signal a surplus.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) estimates the refined copper market was in a deficit of roughly 150,000 tonnes through the first five months of 2026. Concentrate supply disruptions in Chile and Peru continue to cap smelter output, even as Chinese smelters run at high utilization rates. The physical market is tighter than the futures price suggests.
The selloff created a tactical window for Q3 copper contracting. With LME at $13,194, prices are roughly $1,000 below the June average of $14,050. Buyers with unfixed Q3 volumes should evaluate partial fixing at current levels. The physical premium in China — where cathode is trading above exchange prices — signals that the tightness is real. Waiting for further declines risks missing the entry point, especially if macro sentiment shifts.