The structural tightness gripping copper supply chains deepened this week as Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, announced plans for roughly $2 billion in cost reductions, reinforcing concerns about Chilean output stability. Meanwhile, China has suspended exports of certain copper-related materials due to tight supply, forcing major refiners in Chile to cut capacity.
Year-long disruptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC, and El Teniente in Chile have driven copper prices higher throughout 2025 and into 2026. BloombergNEF warns copper demand for the energy transition could triple by 2045, with the metal potentially entering structural deficit as early as 2026.
ING's refined copper balance now shows a deficit of around 600kt for 2026, following a 200kt deficit in 2025. Goldman Sachs expects a refined copper tariff of at least 25% to be implemented shortly after the June 2026 review, adding a policy-driven supply squeeze on top of the existing mine-supply constraints.