LME copper traded near $13,600 per metric ton in late May, supported by deepening tightness in the concentrate market that has driven treatment charges to unprecedented negative levels. Spot TC/RCs for copper concentrate fell to around -$70/t, reflecting smelters' desperation for raw material as global mine supply growth continues to lag.
The concentrate shortage is compounded by structural underinvestment in new mines. S&P Global projects a cumulative mine-concentrate deficit of approximately 3 million tonnes by 2036, even as visible refined inventories exceeded 1.3 million tonnes in March 2026. J.P. Morgan and other banks forecast refined copper deficits of 150,000 to 330,000 tonnes this year, with average prices around $12,075/t and potential peaks above $12,500/t in Q2.
China's refined copper output has remained robust, but smelter margins are under severe pressure from negative treatment charges. Meanwhile, demand from energy transition infrastructure, grid upgrades, and AI-related data center buildout continues to grow, keeping the structural demand story intact despite near-term macro headwinds.