The copper market entered a period of price consolidation in the second half of May as two opposing forces — relentless supply curtailments and deteriorating macro sentiment — fought for control of the narrative. After LME three-month copper touched $14,097/t on May 13, prices retreated to settle at $13,545 by May 22, establishing a trading band between $13,400 and $13,550. (FACT: Westmetall, May 2026)
The supply side of the ledger has rarely looked tighter. Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the world's largest copper operations, delayed its planned restart to 2028 following a catastrophic mudslide. Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC suffered operational setbacks from seasonal flooding, and El Teniente in Chile experienced a fatal accident that curtailed production. (FACT: Mining.com, May 2026) Compounding these direct mine disruptions, China's May ban on sulfuric acid exports — a critical input for copper leaching and SX-EW operations — has created a new bottleneck. JPMorgan estimates that roughly 15% of global copper production depends on sulfuric acid, making the export halt a material supply-side shock. (FACT: CNBC, JPMorgan, May 2026)
On the demand side, the Iran conflict continues to weigh on global growth expectations, and the threat of 10-15% US tariffs on refined copper imports — stemming from the 2026 section 232 review — has injected uncertainty into procurement decisions. Chinese buyers, who represent approximately 60% of global copper consumption, have been buying dips but remain cautious on large forward commitments. (FACT: CNBC, May 2026)
The tug-of-war between collapsing mine supply and deteriorating macro demand has created a market that is both tight on paper and cautious in execution. LME stocks at roughly 392-396 kt provide only a modest buffer against further disruption. (FACT: Westmetall, May 2026)
For copper buyers, the $13,400–$13,550 consolidation zone represents a precarious equilibrium. The supply disruption pipeline — Grasberg's 2028 delay, Kamoa-Kakula's flooding, El Teniente's accident, and the sulfuric acid export ban — is adding cumulative downward pressure on available refined tonnage. Yet global growth anxieties and tariff overhang are suppressing the risk premium that these disruptions would typically command. Procurement teams should prepare for a breakout scenario: any positive macro catalyst — a US-China trade detente, an Iran ceasefire, or even strong Chinese stimulus — could rapidly reprice copper higher as the market reprices the supply gap. Consider layering in forward coverage at current levels given the asymmetric upside risk.