It has been nearly three years since Wa State authorities in Myanmar pulled the plug on all mining operations, and the tin market is still feeling the aftershocks. The Man Maw mine — a jugular vein in the global tin supply chain that once accounted for 7–8% of worldwide output — has sat idle since August 2023, removing roughly 10% of global tin concentrate from circulation.
The long-awaited restart remains a slow-motion affair. Wa authorities began issuing new mining license instructions in 2025, raising hopes that Man Maw could resume operations. But progress has been glacial. Regulatory approvals, infrastructure rehabilitation, and workforce reassembly are taking far longer than the market anticipated. Global refined tin production has consistently fallen short of demand through 2024 and into 2025–26 as a result.
LME three-month tin hit an all-time high near $56,800 per tonne on January 26 this year, driven by speculative momentum layered on top of a genuine supply crisis. Prices have since corrected but remain deeply elevated, trading around $52,219/t as of May 20 — still more than double the levels seen in early 2023.
The combination of Myanmar's offline mines and Indonesia's persistent export permit delays has created a supply squeeze with no near-term resolution. Until meaningful tonnes return from Southeast Asia, the tin market remains structurally undersupplied.