Myanmar's tin mining restart has effectively stalled. Shipments of ore from the Wa State to China have stabilized at around 1,300 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate per month, a fraction of pre-ban levels. Mining in Wa State was suspended in August 2023, and despite authorities declaring that operations could resume in July 2025, actual production recovery has been minimal.
The slow restart at Man Maw — historically one of the world's largest tin mines — is a key factor keeping the tin market in deficit. The International Tin Association announced in July 2025 that shipments would resume as several operators reportedly secured three-year mining permits. However, BMI/Fitch analysts note that with limited further updates, they have adopted a wait-and-see approach. Myanmar, with an estimated 700,000 tonnes of tin reserves (15% of global total), remains the dominant swing factor for global tin supply.
For Chinese smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, the Myanmar ore shortfall has forced operating rates to roughly half of full capacity. Combined with Indonesia's export permit delays, approximately 40% of global tin exports face regulatory or political constraints. The market's inability to restore Myanmar supply to pre-ban levels — even after three years — signals that the structural supply deficit is likely to persist through 2027.