The International Tin Association (ITA) estimates the global refined tin market deficit at 8,000-10,000 tonnes in 2026, extending a run of annual deficits that began in 2022. The cumulative deficit over five years is approximately 50,000 tonnes — roughly 15% of annual consumption — which explains why LME inventories remain at critically low levels of just 3,800 tonnes, equivalent to approximately three days of global demand.
The supply constraints are concentrated in two countries. Myanmar’s Wa State, which accounted for roughly 10% of global tin mine production before 2023, continues to operate well below capacity. The suspension of mining activities announced by the United Wa State Army in August 2023 officially ended in 2024, but exports have recovered to only about 60% of pre-suspension levels. It is unclear when — or whether — full production will resume.
Indonesia, the world’s largest tin exporter, shipped roughly 65,000 tonnes of refined tin in 2025 and is on a similar pace in 2026 — down about 15% from the 2023 peak. The decline reflects tighter permitting under Indonesia’s revised mining regulations and increased scrutiny of ESG compliance by international buyers. Several Indonesian smelters have had their export licenses delayed or suspended.
New mine supply is not filling the gap. Global tin mine production grew an estimated 1.2% in the first five months of 2026, with modest increases in Peru and the DRC offsetting declines in Myanmar and Indonesia. There are no major new tin mines expected to reach production before 2028. The supply picture is structurally bullish — demand would need to decline by 3-4% to balance the market, and there is no sign of that happening.
The tin deficit is structural and will not be resolved by price alone. Myanmar’s production may never fully recover, and Indonesia’s export capacity is constrained by policy, not economics. Buyers should plan for tin prices in the $48,000-55,000 range as the new normal through 2026-2027. The recent selloff below $50,000 was a macro-driven anomaly, not a reflection of improving supply. For procurement teams that use tin in solder or packaging applications, securing H2 supply now is essential. The risk of a supply shock — an Indonesian export ban, a Myanmar disruption — is real and would send prices sharply higher given the lack of inventory buffer.