LME tin bounced back above $50,000 per metric tonne on June 26, settling at $50,100 after Thursday’s harrowing 4.5% single-day crash. The 1.1% recovery was driven by short covering from traders who had pressed the short side during the selloff and bargain buying from consumers who saw $49,550 as a buying opportunity. Thin liquidity — a chronic feature of the LME tin contract — amplifies both declines and recoveries.
The scale of tin’s June volatility is exceptional even by this metal’s standards. Tin traded as high as $57,500 in mid-June before collapsing to $49,550 on June 25 — a 14% peak-to-trough move in roughly two weeks. The selloff was triggered by macro risk-off positioning and concerns about semiconductor demand, but the speed and magnitude were magnified by the low open interest and thin trading volumes in the LME tin contract.
Fundamentally, the tin market has not changed as much as the price suggests. LME inventories at roughly 3,800 tonnes remain near multi-year lows. Myanmar’s Wa State tin exports are still running at roughly 60% of pre-2023 levels. Indonesia’s exports have partially recovered but remain constrained by permitting. The global tin market is in deficit for the fifth consecutive year.
SHFE tin rose 1.5% to ¥423,310 per tonne, outpacing the LME recovery and signaling that Chinese physical demand is absorbing the selloff. SHFE tin inventories have declined modestly through June, consistent with a market where end-users are buying on dips rather than waiting for further declines.
Tin at $50,100 represents a 13% discount to the mid-June peak. For buyers who missed the dip below $50,000 on June 25, current levels are still attractive given the structural deficit. Tin’s supply constraints — Myanmar disruption, Indonesia permits, no major new mines — are not going away. The volatility creates tactical buying opportunities: when macro selling drives tin down 5%+ in a session, that’s usually a buying signal, not a reason to wait. For Q3 contracting, locking in a portion of volumes at $50,000-52,000 is prudent. The alternative is exposure to a rebound toward $55,000+ if supply disruptions intensify.