The global refined tin market is expected to shift into a supply deficit in 2026 — the first in approximately five years — as demand growth outruns production gains, according to trade credit risk management firm Coface. (FACT: Coface via mining.com.au, 2026)
Coface projects refined tin output will grow by 3% in 2026, following 2% growth in 2025, while demand is forecast to increase by 3.5%. "This will be insufficient to offset the expected 3.5% increase in demand in 2026. The market is therefore expected to shift into deficit this year, a situation that is likely to continue in the years to come," Coface reports. (FACT: Coface, 2026)
The International Tin Association (ITA) takes a longer-term view, forecasting tin demand will increase by 25% by 2035, driven by electronics miniaturisation, the Internet of Things, renewable energy infrastructure, and electric vehicle production. Underinvestment in mining capacity threatens to leave supply structurally short. (FACT: International Tin Association, 2026)
Tin was the best-performing base metal in 2025, gaining nearly 40% over the year. The rally accelerated in January 2026 with a further 40% surge that pushed prices to a record high of US$56,800 per tonne. (FACT: mining.com.au, January 2026)
As of 22 May 2026, LME 3-month tin settled at US$54,174/t, with the official cash bid/offer at US$53,895/$53,900/t and the 3-month official range at US$53,955/$53,960/t. (FACT: LME day-delayed data, 22 May 2026)
LME tin inventories remain thin at 8,285 tonnes total, comprising 7,775 tonnes of live warrants and 405 tonnes of cancelled warrants — levels that provide little buffer against supply disruptions. (FACT: LME opening stocks data, 22 May 2026)
Coface expects average prices to hover around US$45,000/t in H1 2026, representing a 40% year-on-year increase. However, given limited global inventories and current fundamentals, prices are expected to remain strong, with supply deficits forecast to widen through to 2030. (FACT: Coface, 2026)
The ITA notes that while the market has been in a prolonged deficit due to protracted supply disruptions, "the metal's fundamentals are not the primary driver of the recent price rally." Instead, increased investor activity — particularly in China — has pushed prices higher alongside a broader uplift in the base metals complex amid heightened global tensions and a weakening US dollar. (FACT: International Tin Association, 2026)
Supply disruptions affecting Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo — which together account for 20% of global tin production and 60% of Chinese tin ore imports — remain largely unresolved. (FACT: mining.com.au, 2026)
"In the longer term, the main challenge will be the expansion of mining capacity, as the depletion of exploited deposits is a major vulnerability for the entire value chain," Coface warns. (FACT: Coface, 2026)
Meanwhile, solder — used in electronics assembly — accounts for approximately 50% of world tin demand, making tin critically exposed to the technology and data infrastructure cycles. (FACT: mining.com.au / Geoscience Australia, 2026)
First-quarter 2026 production reports paint a mixed picture. Indonesia's PT Timah saw output surge 81.9% to 5,630 tonnes, while Peru's Minsur — the world's second-largest refined tin producer — reported a 2.9% dip at its Pisco smelter to 8,314 tonnes, though its exploration spend jumped 97% year-on-year. (FACT: International Tin Association, Q1 2026)
Action: With LME tin inventories at 8,285 tonnes (near-historic lows) and the global market forecast to shift to deficit in 2026, tin buyers face genuine physical supply risk that cannot be solved by price alone. Secure H2 2026 volumes now — the thin inventory buffer means any disruption (Myanmar, Indonesia, DRC) creates immediate spot tightness. For electronics manufacturers representing ~50% of tin demand, consider qualifying secondary tin sources to diversify away from primary supply concentration.
Horizon: Tin supply tightness persists through at least H1 2027. South Crofty (2028) is the earliest new Western mine supply.
Trigger: Watch LME tin inventories — below 5,000 tonnes signals a physical squeeze. Also track Indonesia's monthly refined tin exports: below 4,000 tonnes/month confirms ongoing export controls are biting.