LME three-month tin traded at $55,418 per tonne on May 29, remaining near elevated levels as the market prices persistent supply disruptions from Myanmar's Wa State, which previously supplied approximately 15% of global tin concentrate. The Man Maw mine alone accounted for 7-8% of global supply.
Supply constraints are compounded by Indonesia's tightening export policies, where permit delays and stricter processing requirements have reduced shipments. The ITA reports a narrow deficit in 2024, and Coface projects a more significant deficit in 2026 as supply growth of 3% falls short of demand growth of 3.5%.
Fitch/BMI has tightened its 2026 forecast citing continued supply issues from Myanmar and Indonesia and a thin project pipeline. The ITA emphasizes historic underinvestment in new mines with 'significant deficits' ahead. Electronics soldering (50% of consumption) and solar manufacturing continue growing.