Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter, continues to face delays in approving annual work permits for mining operations. The government has required miners to submit new annual work plans, a process that has constrained production and exports through the first half of 2026. The Indonesia Tin Exporters Association expects official production quotas to reach 60,000 tonnes in 2026, up from 53,000 tonnes in 2025, but slow approval times are limiting actual throughput.
The regulatory tightening follows a broader crackdown on illegal mining. Indonesian refined tin shipments dropped approximately 33% in 2024 to 46,000 tonnes, and the slow recovery in permit approvals has extended the supply constraint into 2025-26. In the past, the flow of metal from Indonesia has repeatedly stalled when the government tightens rules, creating a pattern of supply disruption that traders now price into the market.
The delays come at a time of peak demand. Tin is essential for solder in semiconductor packaging, circuit boards, and data center power systems, all of which are experiencing strong demand from AI infrastructure buildout. The combination of Indonesian supply friction and robust demand has pushed LME prices near $50,000/tonne, a level that is testing downstream buyers' willingness to pay but reflecting genuine physical tightness.