Indonesia's tin export permit system continues restricting refined tin availability, with permit issuance running below expectations in Q2 2026. The policy creates bottlenecks that have reduced Indonesian exports by an estimated 15-20% compared to the same period last year.
The Indonesian supply constraint compounds Myanmar's Wa State disruption, creating a dual supply shock. Combined, Myanmar and Indonesia account for approximately 40% of global tin supply. The policy-driven reduction has pushed LME tin above $55,000/t and driven SHFE futures 2.5% higher.
Demand-side dynamics are supportive. Tin consumption from electronics - solder for semiconductor packaging and circuit boards - is growing with AI infrastructure and 5G deployment. Solar manufacturing also consumes significant tin. The ITA projects demand growth of 3.5% in 2026, outpacing supply growth of 3.0%.