Indonesia's tin export machinery has seized up once again. Permit delays that first emerged in 2024 have persisted into 2025, with the country's tin exports falling significantly as a result. As the world's second-largest tin exporter, Indonesia's regulatory paralysis is removing meaningful tonnage from a global market that can ill afford it.
The permitting bottleneck stems from ongoing administrative reforms and verification processes that have created a logjam at the export approval stage. Smelters have been unable to ship refined tin at normal volumes, and the resulting supply gap has been felt across the LME and physical markets alike. Traders report increased competition for available spot material, with premiums widening in both Europe and Asia.
The timing could hardly be worse. Myanmar's Man Maw mine remains shut, removing another major supply pillar simultaneously. Together, the two disruptions have erased roughly 15–20% of accessible global tin supply — a shock that pushed LME three-month prices to an all-time high near $56,800/t in January and keeps them trading above $52,000/t today.
Without a swift resolution in Jakarta's permitting system, the market faces the prospect of sustained Indonesian export constraints compounding the structural deficit for yet another year. The ITA projects a global refined tin deficit exceeding 10,000 tonnes in 2026 — and Indonesia holds the key to narrowing that gap.