Tin has been trading near the $50,000 per tonne zone after setting a nominal LME record earlier this year. The market faces a structural deficit: refined tin production is expected to rise about 3% in 2026, while demand is forecast to grow 3.5%, leaving the market vulnerable to deficit conditions. Solder accounts for about 50% of global tin demand, linking the metal directly to AI, semiconductor packaging, and data center infrastructure.
Supply constraints remain acute. Indonesia's delays in approving annual work permits continue to restrict exports, while Myanmar's Wa State — which accounts for 70% of the country's tin output — has resumed only limited production. Shipments of ore from Myanmar to China have stabilized at around 1,300 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate per month, well below pre-ban levels. BMI/Fitch has raised its 2026 tin price forecast to $45,000/tonne.
Demand from the semiconductor and electronics sectors is particularly strong. 'Strong demand from semiconductor packaging and electronics applications, particularly driven by AI and high-performance computing, supported consumption of tin-based solder,' procurement resource reports note. The combination of thin inventories, concentrated supply risk, and rising demand from digital infrastructure creates a bullish structural thesis for tin through at least 2027.