PT Timah (IDX: TINS), Indonesia's state-owned tin producer, reported a sharp 81.9% year-on-year increase in refined tin production for the first quarter of 2026, reaching 5,630 tonnes — a dramatic acceleration from the same period in 2025. (FACT: International Tin Association, Q1 2026)
The production surge was accompanied by sales of 6,009 tonnes of refined tin at an average realised price of US$49,221 per tonne, generating revenue of IDR 5.47 trillion (approximately US$316 million) — up 160.5% year-on-year from Q1 2025. (FACT: International Tin Association / PT Timah, Q1 2026)
The revenue jump reflects both higher volumes and the sustained rally in tin prices. The LME 3-month tin contract settled at US$54,174/t on 22 May 2026, while the LME cash official bid/offer stood at US$53,895/$53,900/t. (FACT: LME day-delayed data, 22 May 2026)
PT Timah's output acceleration comes at a critical juncture for global tin markets. LME tin inventories stood at 8,285 tonnes total (7,775 tonnes live warrants, 405 tonnes cancelled) as of 22 May 2026 — historically low levels that continue to underpin prices. (FACT: LME opening stocks data, 22 May 2026)
Indonesia is the world's largest tin exporter, and any shifts in its production profile have outsized effects on global supply. The Q1 ramp-up at PT Timah provides some near-term relief, but structural concerns remain: the Indonesian government shut down approximately 1,000 illegal tin mining operations in September 2025, and export permit renewals have caused periodic supply halts. (FACT: mining.com.au / ITA, 2025–2026)
Coface, the trade credit risk management firm, expects Indonesian domestic production to fall by 2% in 2026 after a 1% decline the previous year, citing "regulatory constraints and growing aversion to mining projects." PT Timah's Q1 numbers, however, suggest the state-owned champion may be bucking that broader trend. (FACT: Coface via mining.com.au, 2026)
The broader tin market is forecast to shift into deficit in 2026. Coface projects refined output growth of just 3% against demand growth of 3.5%, a gap that is expected to widen in subsequent years. (FACT: Coface via mining.com.au, 2026)
The International Tin Association (ITA) sees demand increasing by 25% by 2035, driven by electronics, renewable energy, and data infrastructure, while underinvestment in mining capacity threatens to leave supply trailing. Solder alone accounts for approximately 50% of world tin demand. (FACT: ITA / mining.com.au, 2026)
Monitor PT Timah output trajectory and Indonesian export policy for tin supply signals.