Softwood lumber enters H2 2026 at approximately $480 per thousand board feet, down 18% year-over-year, as US housing starts decline 8% and Canadian supply remains ample. The Random Lengths framing composite price has fallen from $620/mbf in January to current levels.
US housing starts are forecast at 1.35 million units for 2026, down 8% from 2025's 1.46 million. Mortgage rates above 7% continue to suppress new construction, particularly in the single-family segment. Multi-family starts are holding up better at 400,000 units annually.
Canadian lumber imports to the US are forecast at 22 billion board feet, down 5% year-over-year. The ongoing softwood lumber dispute and potential tariff increases create uncertainty for cross-border trade flows.
Mill inventories are elevated at 18-20 billion board feet, well above the 15 billion board foot comfort level. Producers have responded with curtailments — approximately 5% of Western capacity is currently idled.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $450-550/mbf.
Lumber buyers should maintain lean inventories with spot procurement for H2 requirements. The housing slowdown and elevated mill stocks create a bearish price environment. For homebuilders, consider just-in-time purchasing to avoid inventory depreciation. Budget $450-600/mbf for 2027, contingent on Fed rate policy and housing recovery timing.