Bleached hardwood kraft (BHKP) pulp enters H2 2026 at approximately $790/tonne, up 5% year-over-year, as global paper demand recovers 2%. Global pulp production is forecast at 195 Mt in 2026, up from 191 Mt in 2025.
Brazilian eucalyptus pulp exports are forecast at 22 Mt, up 6%, with Suzano, Klabin, and CMPC the dominant suppliers. The weaker Brazilian real (R$5.2/USD) supports export competitiveness.
Chinese pulp imports are forecast at 32 Mt, up 3%, as domestic paper production recovers. However, China's pulp self-sufficiency ratio is improving at 45%, limiting import growth.
Packaging grade pulp (for corrugated and cartonboard) is the fastest-growing segment at 4% annually, driven by e-commerce. Printing and writing grades remain under structural pressure from digital substitution.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $750-850/t.
Wood pulp buyers should secure H2 requirements at $770-820/t through fixed contracts. Packaging demand provides structural support. For paper mills, consider hardwood-softwood blend optimization to manage costs. Budget $750-880/t for 2027.