Lumber Structural Analysis — June 2026

Lumber & wood products – price level (early June 2026) - CME benchmark lumber is around USD 600–610/1,000 board feet as of early June 2026, up ~5% over the past month and roughly flat vs a year ago. - Recent spot and futures commentary suggests a trading band roughly USD 480–540/mbf for much of 2026, but with upside risk if housing and supply constraints tighten simultaneously. - European sawn timber prices are showing modest Q2 gains, driven more by cost inflation than strong demand. Supply conditions (structural constraints) - Global softwood lumber capacity is down ~8% due to permanent mill

Lumber & wood products – price level (early June 2026) - CME benchmark lumber is around USD 600–610/1,000 board feet as of early June 2026, up ~5% over the past month and roughly flat vs a year ago. - Recent spot and futures commentary suggests a trading band roughly USD 480–540/mbf for much of 2026, but with upside risk if housing and supply constraints tighten simultaneously. - European sawn timber prices are showing modest Q2 gains, driven more by cost inflation than strong demand.

Supply conditions (structural constraints) - Global softwood lumber capacity is down ~8% due to permanent mill closures, creating a structural supply deficit into 2026. - North American supply: - Canadian output is falling due to high duties/tariffs, high costs, and wildfire/log constraints; further “material” reductions in Canadian lumber output are forecast for 2026 (≈ –1.2 billion board feet). - Some of this is offset by higher U.S. production (esp.

Southern yellow pine and some PNW), but not fully; market balance is tighter and more volatile. - U.S. duties on Canadian lumber remain effectively in the mid‑30% range even after a proposed nominal cut in combined rates, keeping Canadian supply expensive and discouraging shipments.