Kraft paper enters H2 2026 at approximately $710/tonne, up 6% year-over-year, as e-commerce packaging demand grows 5%. Global containerboard production is forecast at 250 Mt in 2026, up 3% from 2025.
Old corrugated containers (OCC) feedstock prices average $180/st, providing moderate cost support. The OCC-kraft spread has averaged $350-400/t, sufficient for mill margins but below historical norms.
Mill capacity utilization sits at 92%, tight but not constraining. Approximately 8 Mt of new capacity is scheduled to come online in H2 2026, primarily in Southeast Asia and North America.
E-commerce penetration continues to grow at 12-15% annually, driving corrugated box demand. However, lightweighting (reducing basis weight) is reducing fiber consumption per package by 2-3% annually.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $650-780/t.
Kraft paper buyers should secure H2 requirements at $680-740/t through fixed contracts. E-commerce demand provides structural support. For converters, consider linerboard-medium substitution optimization. Budget $680-800/t for 2027.