The US Commerce Department is expected to deliver its Section 232 copper tariff review by June 2026, with a proposed 15% tariff on refined copper set to take effect in January 2027 and rise to 30% by January 2028. Originally announced in February 2025, refined copper was exempted from the 50% tariff applied to semi-finished products, but the pending deadline has kept the market on edge.
The threat of tariffs triggered a record COMEX-LME arbitrage spread of $1.30/lb in mid-2025, driving over 890,000 tonnes of copper into US warehouses. With US inventories now at approximately 490,000-500,000 tonnes on COMEX, the urgency to pre-position metal has faded. The COMEX premium has largely evaporated as traders reassess near-term tariff implementation.
LME copper stocks have risen to 385,275 tonnes, levels last seen in 2013, as surplus Chinese metal flows into LME sheds in Singapore and US ports. Chinese refined imports fell 25% year-on-year in early 2026 to 454,000 tonnes, signaling price resistance at current elevated levels. The Yangshan premium recovered to $65/tonne from $20 in January.
Goldman Sachs expects LME copper to average $10,000-11,000/tonne in 2026, while StoneX forecasts $11,490/tonne. Both projections sit below current spot levels, reflecting expectations that inventories and subdued Chinese demand will moderate prices from recent peaks.
For buyers, the tariff deadline introduces binary risk. If 15% tariffs are confirmed, domestic US copper prices will decouple from international benchmarks and the COMEX premium will re-widen sharply. Forward coverage beyond December 2026 should be structured with tariff contingency clauses.
For buyers, the tariff deadline introduces binary risk. If 15% tariffs are confirmed, domestic US copper prices will decouple from international benchmarks and the COMEX premium will re-widen sharply. Forward coverage beyond December 2026 should be structured with tariff contingency clauses.