COMEX copper is in a well-defined consolidation channel between $6.18 and $6.45/lb following the steep Q2 rally. The 14-day RSI at 48.2 has retreated from the overbought reading of 72 reached during the peak in late May, suggesting momentum has shifted neutral.
The weekly chart shows a bearish engulfing candlestick for the first week of June, closing at $6.28 after reaching a high of $6.40. Volume has been declining during the consolidation, typically a sign of distribution rather than accumulation.
Key support levels sit at $6.20 (the 20-day EMA), followed by $6.00 (the 50-day EMA). The 200-day EMA at $5.20 is well below current levels, meaning the long-term trend remains intact but a correction toward the $5.80-6.00 zone would be healthy.
The Q2 rally of 18.7% (from $5.54 to $6.65) was driven by tariff stockpiling and supply disruption fears. As these catalysts fade, the corrective move could retrace 38-50% of the rally, targeting the $6.00-6.20 zone.
Technicals suggest near-term downside with a break below $6.20 opening the path to $6.00. For spot purchases, waiting for the $6.00-6.10 zone offers a better entry. For forward contracts, layer in hedges at current levels with additional coverage if copper reaches $6.00. The long-term uptrend remains intact, so aggressive shorting is not advised.