Antimony Prices Remain Elevated as China's Export Controls Continue to Reshape Global Supply Chains

The antimony market entering mid-2026 is defined by a fundamental tension: prices have corrected from the mid-2025 peak but remain structurally elevated at roughly double the pre-2024 baseline. Fastmarkets data shows the benchmark price stabilized around $34.83/kg ($34,830/t) in Q1 2026, down from the peak of $59,750/t in July 2025 but well above the $15,000-18,000/t range that prevailed before China's September 2024 export controls.

China's export control regime fundamentally restructured global antimony trade flows. The controls, announced August 15, 2024, and effective September 15, 2024, imposed licensing requirements on antimony ore, metal, oxides, compounds, and smelting technology. The impact was immediate: Chinese antimony export volumes to global markets dropped approximately 97%, according to Minor Metals Trade Association data reported by Expert Market Research. A December 2024 escalation introduced a targeted export ban on antimony to the United States.

The supply response has been partial. Global mine production is approximately 100,000 t/yr, with China accounting for roughly 48-60% of mine output and controlling the majority of refining and trioxide capacity. Tajikistan, Myanmar, and Southeast Asian sources have partially filled the gap, and Belgium and France have emerged as leading exporters of antimony trioxide as Chinese oxide exports collapsed from 34,200 t in 2024 to an estimated 6,000 t in 2025. But no major Western projects are expected to provide meaningful supply before 2028.

Demand fundamentals remain robust. Flame retardants account for roughly half of antimony consumption, with photovoltaic glass providing steady support through sodium antimonate clarifying agents. Defense demand has risen significantly due to US and European munitions restocking: antimony is irreplaceable in ammunition primers, tracer rounds, and infrared semiconductor compounds. The US Department of Defense has provided over $59 million in funding to Perpetua Resources' Stibnite project in Idaho to rebuild domestic supply.

The political timeline creates defined event risk. The suspension of the US-specific export ban, announced November 9, 2025, expires November 27, 2026. The underlying licensing architecture remains fully operational, and new 2026 regulations introduce stricter eligibility requirements for Chinese exporters. Fastmarkets characterizes the market outlook as adequate but fragile: supply volume may cover demand, but any renewed tightening could quickly push prices back toward the 2025 peaks.

Regional price dispersion persists. North America is the most expensive market, with antimony trioxide reaching $44,684/t in April 2026 compared to $28,521/t in China. This reflects the heavier exposure to US-China policy risk and the costs of transshipment via third countries. European prices sit between the two at approximately $26,500/t for 99.65% metal as of June 2026.

Analysts broadly expect the structural China-West price divergence to persist through 2026. The antimony market is now driven more by Chinese export policy than by supply-demand fundamentals, a dynamic that distinguishes it from most industrial metals. Any escalation in US-China trade tensions could tighten access further, while defense procurement provides a persistent demand floor at elevated prices.

The bull case for the remainder of 2026 centers on the November 27 suspension expiry, which could trigger renewed price spikes if China does not extend the waiver. The base case sees prices continuing to narrow toward the $30,000-35,000/t range as alternative supply chains mature. The bear case involves a global economic slowdown reducing industrial demand, though defense-related consumption would remain insulated.