Antimony has moved from a niche specialty metal to a front-line strategic commodity. China's export controls on antimony — imposed as licensing in 2023, escalated to a US embargo in December 2024, then partially suspended through November 2026 — have transformed market structure. Prices that traded below $15,000/t pre-2024 surged above $60,000/t at their 2025 peak before correcting to the current $24,500-52,000/t range.
Supply is the constraint. China produces roughly 55% of global mined antimony, down from 75% a decade ago as ore grades decline and reserves deplete. The remaining supply comes from Tajikistan (18%), Russia (8%), and Myanmar (5%). New mine capacity is limited — the only significant greenfield project is Far Resources' Stibnite Gold project in Idaho, targeting first production no earlier than 2028. Secondary production from battery recycling adds perhaps 15-20% of total supply but yields lower-purity material.
Demand is diversifying. Flame retardants still account for roughly 50% of antimony consumption, but the balance is shifting. Antimony trioxide (ATO) is essential for halogenated flame retardants used in electronics and construction. The glass sector consumes antimony as a fining agent in solar glass manufacturing — each GW of PV panel production uses roughly 5 tonnes of antimony. The lead-acid battery segment adds steady demand from the automotive aftermarket. Total global demand sits at roughly 140,000 tonnes per year against supply of 150,000-160,000 tonnes, creating a structurally tight but episodically surplus physical market.
Regional pricing reflects the bifurcation. Antimony trioxide in Q1 2026 traded at approximately $57,000/t in the US, $34,000/t in China, and $66,000/t in the UK. The US premium reflects the 25% Section 232 tariff on antimony imports plus logistical costs for non-Chinese supply. The China-Europe spread signals that European buyers face scrambling for ex-China material while Chinese domestic consumers enjoy preferential pricing.
Procurement implications. The November 2026 expiry of China's temporary export-ban suspension is the single most important catalyst. If the suspension is not extended, US and European buyers face an immediate supply crunch for antimony metal and trioxide. We recommend building 4-6 months of inventory before Q4 2026, diversifying sources toward Tajik and Russian supply where politically feasible, and evaluating antimony-free alternatives in flame retardant applications where performance requirements allow.
For comprehensive data and intelligence on antimony and related markets, refer to the Rzzro Intelligence — Antimony & Critical Minerals and Rzzro Data — Commodity price tracking.
Spot antimony remains available but at widening regional premiums. The US-everything-else spread of $20,000-30,000/t is a structural feature, not a trading anomaly. Budget for $30,000-50,000/t in 2026 with upside risk to $60,000+ if the export suspension expires. Build inventory, lock in term contracts with non-Chinese suppliers, and monitor the November 2026 deadline as the key catalyst.