Wheat enters H2 2026 at approximately $6.20/bushel, down 8% year-over-year, as abundant Black Sea supply offsets weather concerns in other growing regions. The USDA projects global wheat production reaching a record 795 Mt in 2026/27, with ending stocks recovering to 268 Mt.
Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan are forecast to export a combined 55 Mt in 2026/27, down from the 60+ Mt pace in 2024/25 but still historically elevated. Russian wheat exports face logistical constraints from Black Sea shipping disruptions, but alternative routes through the Caspian and overland to Central Asia are partially offsetting.
Weather risks are concentrated. EU wheat production is forecast down 4-6% due to excessive spring rainfall. Australian production is recovering from drought at 32-35 Mt. Argentine planting intentions are strong at 7.0-7.5 Mt, though La Niña weather patterns could impact yield.
Global consumption grows 1.8% to 790 Mt, driven by population growth and feed demand. The stocks-to-use ratio sits at 33.9%, comfortably above the 30% threshold that typically signals tight conditions.
USDA price projections cluster at $5.80-6.50/bu for H2 2026, with downside risk if Black Sea exports accelerate and upside risk if La Niña impacts Southern Hemisphere production.
Wheat buyers should secure H2 requirements at $5.80-6.30/bu through fixed contracts. The abundant Black Sea supply creates a price ceiling, but weather risks warrant maintaining coverage. For millers, consider hard red winter wheat spreads if Kansas City premiums widen. Budget $6.00-7.00/bu for 2027 as global stocks normalize.