Global supply–demand balance (into mid-2026) - Global wheat supplies in 2025/26 are ample, with record or near‑record production in key exporters (Argentina, Canada, Kazakhstan) and higher global ending stocks, which USDA expects to keep prices “under pressure.” - International Grains Council (IGC) projections (via AHDB) show higher global grain production and slightly higher wheat‑driven ending stocks for 2024/25, feeding into comfortable carryover into 2025/26. - FAO projects 2025/26 global cereal utilization at a record 2,943 Mt, with gains for wheat, but still below production, supporting
Global supply–demand balance (into mid-2026) - Global wheat supplies in 2025/26 are ample, with record or near‑record production in key exporters (Argentina, Canada, Kazakhstan) and higher global ending stocks, which USDA expects to keep prices “under pressure.” - International Grains Council (IGC) projections (via AHDB) show higher global grain production and slightly higher wheat‑driven ending stocks for 2024/25, feeding into comfortable carryover into 2025/26.
- FAO projects 2025/26 global cereal utilization at a record 2,943 Mt, with gains for wheat, but still below production, supporting stock rebuilding. - FAO’s early 2026 wheat outlook expects global wheat production in calendar 2026 to fall ~3% to ~810 Mt as farmers in the EU, Russia, and U.S. cut winter wheat area in response to softer prices, but output remains above the 5‑year average, so no immediate tightness is expected. U.S.
balance sheet (relevant for global benchmarks) - USDA’s February and April 2026 Wheat Outlooks show: - 2025/26 U.S. wheat ending stocks high and rising; March 31, 2026 Grain Stocks data confirm comfortable on‑farm and off‑farm inventories. - The 2025/26 season‑average farm price (SAFP) is forecast around $4.90–$5.00/bu; April 2026 Outlook keeps it at $5.00/bu, slightly up from earlier but still historically moderate. - World‑Grain’s summary of USDA projections notes U.S.
June 1, 2026 wheat carryover raised to 926 million bushels, up 8% year‑on‑year, driven by larger winter wheat area and ro
Procurement teams should maintain flexible sourcing strategies for Wheat given the evolving market dynamics. Monitor supply-side developments, inventory trends, and demand signals from end-use sectors. Consider layered hedging against price volatility and diversify supplier exposure to manage risk.