Cocoa futures on the ICE exchange in New York are trading around $5,330-5,500 per metric ton in late July, a fraction of the record $13,000 peak reached in the 2024 supply crisis. The correction has been dramatic but orderly: prices have fallen more than 50% from the spike while maintaining a level that is still historically elevated — about 60% above the pre-crisis five-year average.
The driving force is supply. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its 2024/25 global balance to a small surplus of 48,000 to 75,000 metric tons, with production of 4.723-4.728 million tons outpacing grindings of 4.606-4.628 million tons. While the surplus is modest by historical standards — comparable to a few days of global consumption — it represents a structural turning point after multiple consecutive deficit years that drained stocks and sent prices to record levels.
Ivory Coast, which supplies roughly 40% of the world's cocoa, is leading the recovery. The Ivorian regulator expects 2025/26 production to rebound to 2.0-2.1 million metric tons, up 10.5% from the previous season. Port arrivals from October 2025 through mid-2026 are running 2-19% ahead of the prior-year period depending on the cut-off date. Ghana, the second-largest producer, is also reporting improved output after weather conditions normalized and disease pressure eased.
The improvement in supply is visible in the warehouse data. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have climbed steadily through mid-2026 to approximately 3.0-3.2 million 60-kilogram bags, the highest in nearly two years. Certified stocks in U.S. ports rose to 3.225 million bags in mid-July, a key bearish signal for nearby futures.
Private forecasters see the surplus expanding further. StoneX projects a 247,000-287,000 ton surplus for 2025/26, while the 2026/27 crop is expected to produce a surplus of 149,000 to 267,000 tons even with growing El Nino risk. "The market has transitioned from structural deficit to surplus territory," said a StoneX analyst. "The question now is how long the surplus window lasts."
Grind data confirms that demand is keeping pace with supply. Global grindings — a proxy for chocolate manufacturing demand — are holding around 4.6 million tons annually. European grind data has been steady, while Asian grind growth continues to outpace most forecasts. This suggests the market is absorbing the additional supply without a collapse in usage.
The medium-term risks remain tilted toward a return to deficit. Structural constraints in West African production — aging trees, soil depletion, rising input costs, and the endemic threat of swollen shoot virus and black pod disease — mean supply growth is unlikely to outpace demand indefinitely. Market analysts surveyed by commodity news services generally expect the surplus window to last 12-18 months before the market returns to a deficit balance, which would put upward pressure on prices from the current $5,300-5,500 level.
The cocoa market has shifted from crisis management to strategic positioning. With the ICCO confirming the first surplus in years and ICE inventories at two-year highs, buyers have breathing room they have not had since 2023. Take advantage of it. Current futures levels around $5,300/t are historically elevated but represent a 50% discount from the 2024 peak. For procurement teams, the approach should be threefold. First, extend coverage — the surplus window is unlikely to last more than 12-18 months, and locking in current levels for 2027 requirements provides insurance against the eventual return to deficit. Second, broaden your origin base. With Ivory Coast production rebounding to 2.0+ million tons and improved output from Ghana, Ecuador, and Nigeria, buyers have sourcing options that did not exist during the tight 2023-2024 period. Third, watch the structural signals. If StoneX's 2026/27 surplus forecast shrinks below 100,000 tons in the next ICCO revision, that is the signal to accelerate coverage.