Tungsten markets have entered unprecedented territory in 2026. Chinese domestic prices for 65% wolframite and scheelite concentrates exceeded RMB 500,000/t (~$72,000/t) as of mid-January 2026, a staggering 216% year-on-year increase according to industry data reported by Quest Metals. Ammonium paratungstate (APT), the benchmark tungsten product, has pushed past $460/MTU, up from $415/MTU in early 2025 and $312/MTU in 2023. Reuters confirmed in April 2026 that tungsten remains at record highs, driven by export curbs, tight inventories, and surging military demand.
The scale of the price move is extraordinary. Reports indicate tungsten powder prices have risen more than 640% between early 2025 and mid-2026, reflecting both feedstock scarcity and speculative stockpiling. The global tungsten market, estimated at approximately 129,000 metric tons in all forms in 2025 by Project Blue, is experiencing its most severe supply squeeze in decades.
China's export control regime is the dominant driver. On February 4, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs implemented Notice No. 10/2025, requiring government permits for tungsten exports. By late 2025, APT exports from China had effectively collapsed to near-zero volumes as licensing delays reached several months, according to Discovery Alert analysis. In December 2025, Beijing further announced that only 15 Chinese firms would be allowed to export tungsten in 2026-27.
Supply constraints are not only regulatory. Global tungsten concentrate production quotas declined approximately 8% year-on-year to roughly 115,000 tonnes in 2026, representing a cumulative reduction of approximately 14% compared to 2024 levels. State-owned Chinese mines face falling ore grades after decades of extraction, limiting effective supply even before quotas are applied. China accounts for roughly 79-82% of global mine production.
Demand dynamics are shifting structurally. Defense applications are a key marginal driver: tungsten's armor-piercing, high-temperature, and density properties make it critical for munitions and armor. Military rearmament has become what Core Consultants Group calls the new era driver of the tungsten market. Industrial demand from cemented carbides, cutting tools, and aerospace remains robust, and no scalable substitute has emerged for most tungsten applications. The global market is projected to grow from approximately $6.04 billion in 2024 to $9.65 billion by 2032.
Outside China, supply remains fragmented. Vietnam, Russia, Rwanda, Bolivia, Austria, and Spain together provide only a few thousand tonnes annually. New projects offer some relief: Almonty's Sangdong mine in South Korea could deliver approximately 7% of global supply upon ramp-up, and Panasqueira in Portugal and Barruecopardo in Spain are emerging as non-Chinese sources. However, these volumes remain far from offsetting Chinese dominance.
Policy responses are accelerating. The US REEShore Act bans use of Chinese tungsten in US military equipment from 2026 and imposes 25% tariffs on Chinese tungsten concentrates and oxides. The EU has renewed anti-dumping duties on Chinese tungsten carbide imports for another five years. These measures incentivize alternative supply and recycling but also add to the cost and complexity of tungsten procurement.
Analysts broadly expect the tungsten supply deficit to persist through at least 2026, with the $400-450/MTU APT range becoming the new floor. Upside risks include further Chinese export tightening, geopolitical escalation, or conflict-related demand shocks. The consensus view is that tungsten has transitioned from a cyclical commodity to a geopolitically strategic material with sustained price elevation.
Tungsten procurement has become a strategic supply chain challenge. The combination of Chinese export licensing, mining quota cuts, surging defense demand, and slow non-Chinese project ramp-up means buyers face a structurally tight market for at least the next 12-18 months. Immediate actions: verify that your suppliers have valid Chinese export licenses (only 15 firms authorized for 2026-27); evaluate non-Chinese sources including Sangdong (Korea), Panasqueira (Portugal), and recycling options; build inventory buffers given licensing delays of up to four months. For US buyers, the REEShore Act prohibition on Chinese tungsten in military equipment from 2026 creates an additional compliance layer. Consider long-term offtake agreements with non-Chinese producers to secure volume visibility.