Soybeans enter H2 2026 at approximately $10.50/bushel, down 3% year-over-year, as record South American production offsets steady Chinese demand. The USDA projects global soybean ending stocks at 125 Mt for 2026/27, a stocks-to-use ratio of 35% — comfortable but not burdensome.
Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast at a record 165 Mt, up 5% from 2025, with harvested area expanding into Mato Grosso and Bahia. Argentina is recovering from drought at 50-52 Mt, while US production is projected at 4.4-4.5 billion bushels assuming trend-line yields.
China's soybean imports are forecast at 105 Mt, up 2% year-over-year, driven by recovering hog herds and expanding crush capacity. However, the growth rate is decelerating as China pursues protein diversification (rapeseed, sunflower meal) and domestic production incentives.
Crush margins remain tight globally. Brazilian crushers face bean premiums that compress margins, while US crushers benefit from renewable diesel demand for soybean oil. The soybean oil biodiesel mandate creates a structural demand floor that supports complex pricing.
USDA price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $9.80-11.00/bu, with the range determined by South American weather and Chinese import pace.
Soybean buyers should secure H2 requirements at $10.00-10.80/bu through forward contracts. The large South American crop creates a price ceiling, but Chinese demand provides a floor. For crushers, lock in bean crush spreads during harvest lows. Budget $10.50-12.00/bu for 2027.