Soybean futures traded above $12.20 per bushel in late July, hovering near a nine-week high and the highest levels in three years, supported by renewed Chinese buying and higher crude oil. The CFD benchmark on Trading Economics reached $12.38/bu on July 23, up 0.43% on the day. CBOT November 2026 futures settled at $11.91/bu following the July 10 WASDE, compared to $10.10/bu in 2025 and $10.65/bu in 2024 at the same point.
The USDA July WASDE raised US 2026/27 soybean production to 4.475 billion bushels, a record if realized, on planted area of 85.4 million acres and trendline yield of 53 bu/acre unchanged from June. Old-crop 2025/26 ending stocks were cut 10 million bushels to 330 million on higher exports. New-crop ending stocks were left unchanged at 310 million bushels, with higher supplies offset by increased exports.
Exports were raised 30 million bushels to 1.66 billion on larger supplies and stronger global demand. Soybean crush remains at a record 2.75 billion bushels, unchanged in July. The season-average farm price is forecast at $11.40/bu, the highest since $12.40 in 2023/24.
The global balance shows comfortable but not burdensome supply. USDA cut world soybean ending stocks by 0.7 million tons to 124.2 million, near the low end of pre-report trade expectations, mainly on lower stocks for Brazil. China's import forecast was raised 1 million tons to 115 million for 2026/27.
Brazil's influence continues to expand. CONAB projects the 2025/26 Brazilian crop at a record 180.3 million tonnes, with exports at an all-time high of 116.1 million tonnes. Crush is projected at 61.58 million tonnes, supported by biodiesel blending mandates. A weaker Brazilian real has boosted export competitiveness.
China's import patterns are shifting decisively toward Brazil. June data showed China's soybean imports from the US fell 20.6% year-on-year to 1.27 million tons, while imports from Brazil rose 13.7% to 12.08 million tons, lifting total arrivals to a record 13.55 million tons. For 2025/26, China is projected to import 106-108 million tons.
CONAB's weekly report showed CBOT soybean futures up 5.97% in the weekly average, with the Brazilian real at R$5.14. US crop conditions remained satisfactory at 66% good-to-excellent, up one point from the prior week and above expectations.
The futures curve shows slight strength in the front months but a discount further out to 2028-29, indicating market expectations of ample medium-term availability from continued South American expansion. Brazil's soybean area continues to grow, with the projected 83.5 million hectares for all grains in 2025/26 supporting further production increases.
The soybean market is defined by a paradox: record global supply meeting record demand, with the balance tipped by trade geopolitics. For procurement teams, the key decision is origin strategy, not just price level. Brazilian soybeans are currently the most competitive origin, with a production cost advantage and a weaker real supporting FOB discounts versus US Gulf. Buyers should ensure at least 70% of 2026/27 coverage is in Brazilian tons priced on CBOT-linked formulas with Brazil basis, leaving 30% optionality for US origin post-October. The record US crop (4.475 bb) means if Brazil faces logistics bottlenecks in early 2027, US beans will be available at a premium but with reliable supply. On outright price, locking coverage between $11.00 and $11.50 for new-crop captures 80% of the probability distribution. Above $12.20/bu, the risk-reward favors selling some coverage rather than chasing. The discount in deferred futures signals adequate long-term supply, so avoid long-dated fixed-price contracts. Instead, use short-dated (6-month) contracts with roll provisions. The biodiesel-driven demand for soybean oil will support crush margins and underpin bean prices even in a surplus scenario. Monitor EPA's 2027 RVO announcements, as a higher biomass-based diesel mandate increases bean demand by up to 100 mb annually.