Rough rice enters H2 2026 at approximately $16.50/cwt, down 5% year-over-year, as global ending stocks rebuild to 185 Mt following India's export normalization. Global rice production is forecast at 520 Mt in 2026, up 2% from 2025.
India's rice exports are recovering to 22 Mt in 2026 after the 2023-24 non-basmati export ban was lifted. Indian 5% broken rice is quoted at $380-400/t FOB, undercutting Thai and Vietnamese origin by $20-30/t.
Thai 5% broken rice benchmarks at $620/t FOB, up 8% year-over-year, as Thai production is constrained by drought and high production costs. Vietnamese rice (5% broken) trades at $580/t FOB.
Chinese rice production is forecast at 208 Mt, stable year-over-year, with government minimum support prices providing a floor. Philippine and Indonesian imports are the key demand swing factors.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $15.50-17.50/cwt.
Rice buyers should secure H2 requirements at $15.50-17.00/cwt through fixed contracts. The ample global supply creates a price ceiling. For millers, consider origin diversification (India, Thailand, Vietnam) to optimize cost-quality mix. Budget $16-18/cwt for 2027.