Headline price situation – June 2026 • Benchmark rice futures were around USD 12.6–13.0/cwt in early June 2026, the highest since Aug‑2025, up about 7% m/m but still ~7% below a year earlier, as markets price in tighter forward supplies. Global supply–demand balance 2025/26–2026/27 • USDA’s 2025/26 global balance (milled) shows record or near‑record supplies: April 2026 ERS puts 2025/26 global rice supplies at about 732.9 million tons (production + beginning stocks), the highest on record. • Production 2025/26: USDA and ERS materials point to global production near 541 million tons, just below
Headline price situation – June 2026 • Benchmark rice futures were around USD 12.6–13.0/cwt in early June 2026, the highest since Aug‑2025, up about 7% m/m but still ~7% below a year earlier, as markets price in tighter forward supplies. Global supply–demand balance 2025/26–2026/27 • USDA’s 2025/26 global balance (milled) shows record or near‑record supplies: April 2026 ERS puts 2025/26 global rice supplies at about 732.9 million tons (production + beginning stocks), the highest on record.
• Production 2025/26: USDA and ERS materials point to global production near 541 million tons, just below the prior record but still very high; FAO/USDA commentary describes 2025/26 as “near record” output. • Consumption 2025/26: projected roughly in line with or slightly below production (about 538–542 million tons), implying a small surplus and continued stock accumulation into 2025/26.
• Global ending stocks 2025/26: raised to a record ~188 million tons in USDA estimates, driven mainly by India’s large inventories. Emerging shift going into 2026/27 • TradingEconomics, summarizing the early 2026/27 WASDE, notes: – Global milled rice output 2026/27 projected at 537.9 million tons, down ~0.9% from 2025/26. – Global consumption forecast at 541.3 million tons, a record and +0.7% y/y.
– Result: global ending stocks fall ~1.8% to 192.7 million tons by end‑2026/27 (still historically large but moving lower). • Key structural point: after several years of surplus and stock building (2023/24–2025/
Procurement teams should maintain flexible sourcing strategies for Rice given the evolving market dynamics. Monitor supply-side developments, inventory trends, and demand signals from end-use sectors. Consider layered hedging against price volatility and diversify supplier exposure to manage risk.