Manganese ore enters H2 2026 at approximately $2,400/tonne (44% Mn CIF China), up 12% year-over-year, as South African supply grows 8% to 7.5 million tonnes. Global manganese production is forecast at 22 Mt in 2026, up 5% from 2025.
South Africa, controlling 80% of global reserves, is the dominant producer at 7.5 Mt. Transnet rail constraints remain the primary bottleneck, with ore transported 800km from Northern Cape mines to Saldanha Bay port.
Steel applications consume 90% of manganese production, primarily as ferromanganese and silicomanganese for deoxidation and alloying. Global steel production growth of 0.3% translates to modest manganese demand growth.
Battery applications, while only 3% of consumption, are the fastest-growing segment. Manganese-rich cathodes (NMC 811, LMFP) are gaining market share due to lower cobalt content and improved thermal stability.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $2,200-2,600/t.
Manganese buyers should secure H2 requirements at $2,300-2,500/t through fixed contracts. South African rail improvements could ease supply constraints. For steel mills, consider ferromanganese spot purchases during alloy tender periods. Budget $2,300-2,700/t for 2027.