The manganese market is splitting in two directions. Standard electrolytic manganese metal for steelmaking is trading at US$2,315/t on the Shanghai Metals Market, under modest downward pressure from weak Chinese steel demand. India's MOIL — a major state ore producer — cut delivery prices by 5-6% across all grades for June 2026, a clear signal that near-term offtake from the steel sector is softening. Yet battery-grade manganese sulphate at US$1,005/t tells a different story: structurally bullish demand driven by the accelerating energy transition.
Ore prices remain elevated compared to 2025 averages. China's manganese ore price index rose 23% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by tighter shipments from South Africa and Australia and resilient ferroalloy demand. Chinese port stocks had fallen to multi-year lows in early 2025 due to logistical bottlenecks. By mid-2026, ore supply has recovered somewhat, with South African and Gabon exports normalizing, but the market remains relatively tight by historical standards.
The battery-grade trajectory is the real structural story. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates battery applications consumed approximately 100,000 tonnes of manganese (metal equivalent) in 2025. That figure is forecast to reach 450,000 tonnes by 2035 — a 350% increase. The growth is driven by the rising manganese content in next-generation cathode chemistries: lithium manganese iron phosphate and high-manganese NMC variants both require significantly more manganese per cell than current formulations.
China dominates the supply chain, producing over 90% of global electrolytic manganese metal, with refining concentrated in Guangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces. High-purity manganese production is energy-intensive at 6,000-7,000 kWh per tonne and technically demanding, requiring impurity levels below 10 parts per million. This constrains rapid capacity additions and supports higher pricing versus standard steel-grade products.
The high-purity EMM market was valued at US$1.16 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$1.27 billion in 2026, expanding to US$2.95 billion by 2035 at a compound annual growth rate of 9.78%. This growth is explicitly tied to EV and energy storage battery deployment, with Asia-Pacific leading both production and consumption.
HPMSM (high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate) averaged US$765/t in 2025, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, with pricing varying widely based on purity specification, contract duration, and buyer relationships. Production involves leaching manganese ore or intermediate feedstock through multiple stages of purification and crystallization to achieve the ultra-high purity levels required by battery manufacturers — typically 99.95% or higher.
The key distinction for procurement: meeting this demand growth requires investment in high-purity processing capacity, not additional ore extraction. Feedstock availability is not the limiting factor — South Africa, Gabon, and Australia hold significant ore reserves. The bottleneck is refining capacity, particularly outside China. Ore and refining concentration raises risk of bottlenecks as battery demand scales.
Procurement teams need to manage the manganese market as two distinct supply chains. For standard EMM used in steel and alloys, current pricing around US$2,300/t reflects adequate supply and soft steel demand. This is a spot-buying market. Do not lock long-term contracts at current levels — the steel cycle will recover, but near-term risk is to the downside. For battery-grade manganese sulphate and high-purity EMM, the calculus is different. The long-term demand trajectory is clear and steep, but near-term supply from Chinese refiners is ramping faster than immediate EV cell demand, creating a temporary soft patch. Use Q3 2026 to secure HPMSM volumes at the lower end of the US$900-1,300/t range. Key markers to watch: Chinese EMM production cuts in Guangxi (supply-side discipline), LMFP cathode adoption rates in China's EV market (demand pull), and any policy moves to reduce manganese import dependence in the US or EU. The structural bottleneck is non-Chinese refining capacity — buyers who invest in qualifying alternative suppliers now will have leverage in the 2028-2030 market.