Cobalt metal on the London Metal Exchange was trading at $56,290 per tonne as of July 22, 2026, according to Trading Economics data. The price has been broadly flat over the past month at roughly $25.53/lb, consolidating after a ferocious rally in 2025 that saw prices more than double from $22,000/t to $57,000/t.
CarbonCredits reports that spot trading activity slowed in July as major consumers utilized existing stockpiles rather than purchasing at spot rates. This pause allows the market to digest what analysts call a new pricing reality around $60-62,000/t, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's strategic supply management acting as a firm floor.
The DRC's ARECOMS quota system, implemented October 2025 after an eight-month export ban, caps cobalt hydroxide exports at 96,600 tonnes annually for 2026 and 2027. That is less than half of the DRC's 2024 production volume of roughly 211,000 tonnes. The quotas are distributed pro rata among producers, with CMOC receiving allocations for its Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu operations.
Fastmarkets forecasts a structural shortfall of about 10,700 tonnes against demand near 292,300 tonnes in 2026. Indonesian cobalt-in-MHP production is expected to reach 67,500 tonnes in 2026, up 145% from 46,300 tonnes in 2025, but the Fastmarkets analyst team notes this 'will not be sufficient to offset the drop in supply from the DRC, leaving the market in deficit.'
The Cobalt Institute estimated total demand at 213,500 tonnes in 2025, growing to roughly 219,600 tonnes in 2026, a 7% recovery. Electric vehicles remain the largest incremental demand driver despite the shift toward lower-cobalt chemistries in some segments. Beyond EVs, lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) batteries remain entrenched in consumer electronics, and aerospace/defense alloy demand provides growing support.
On the corporate side, CMOC Group expects H1 2026 net profit to surge 79-90% year-on-year, benefiting from record copper prices and elevated cobalt prices despite quota-induced inventory build-ups. Meanwhile, Glencore faces a tax dispute: the Congo tax agency sealed the company's mine offices in July 2026 over a payment dispute, adding to the regulatory risk premium already embedded in DRC cobalt.
Bull case: DRC maintains strict quotas, Chinese refiner stocks run critically low by Q4 (as S&P Global's Alice Yu warned), and prices break toward $70,000/t. Bear case: Angered by continued high prices, automakers accelerate the shift to LFP and low-cobalt NMC chemistries, while Indonesian MHP supply surprises to the upside, creating a surplus by early 2027. Base case: Prices trade in a $50,000-62,000/t range through 2026, supported by quotas but capped by substitution risk and consumer resistance.
The DRC quota regime is the single most important factor in cobalt procurement through at least 2027. With quotas locked at 96,600 t/yr, the market is structurally undersupplied regardless of Indonesian MHP growth. Buyers should assume $50,000-62,000/t as the new normal and plan budgets accordingly. Three specific actions: First, diversify supply sources by allocating at least 20% of volume to non-DRC sources (recycled black mass, Indonesian MHP, Australian projects) even at a premium. Second, shift contract structures toward quarterly price review with floor clauses: the downside risk is limited (DRC quotas provide a floor), but upside spikes from policy shocks are real. Third, actively manage inventory buffers: maintain 8-10 weeks of coverage rather than the typical 4-6 weeks, because any disruption to DRC shipments creates immediate spot market tightness. Watch for the latest signal: when Chinese cobalt hydroxide stocks drop below 30,000 tonnes, expect a rapid price response.