US mill capacity utilization is running at 78%, at the upper end of the comfortable operating range. Strong order books from automotive, construction, and energy sectors are keeping mills at near-full production for flat-rolled products.
The upcoming Q3 maintenance season could tighten supply further. Major integrated and EAF mills have scheduled outages totaling an estimated 3.5 million tons of production, concentrated in July and August.
Lead times for new HRC orders have extended to 8-10 weeks, meaning orders placed today will be filled for early August delivery. Spot premiums over contract prices have widened to $56/t, reflecting the tight near-term availability.
The supply-demand balance is precarious. Any unplanned outage during maintenance season could push spot prices above $1,300/t, as the domestic market has limited ability to absorb a sudden supply reduction.
Order early for Q3 requirements. With lead times at 8-10 weeks and scheduled maintenance tightening supply, waiting will cost you. Buyers needing delivery in August should have purchase orders placed by mid-June. Consider building an inventory buffer for Q4.