The US HRC market is in a tariff-protected, high-price regime. A December 2025 industry poll of 444 US steel professionals found that nearly two-thirds expected HRC prices to be higher at end-Q2 2026 than the $930/st December baseline. The consensus view is that Section 232 tariffs will remain in force at least through mid-2026.
Demand from construction and automotive sectors is steady but not booming. Non-residential construction and infrastructure modernization projects continue to support HRC consumption. The automotive sector, particularly EV production, drives demand for advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) HRC variants used in body structures and battery enclosures.
Import competition has been structurally reduced. YTD through September 2025, HRC/CRC/HDG imports were down 38% year-over-year. The revised Section 232 tariffs effective April 6, 2026 further increased import landed costs. Asian offers have increased competitive pressure in some periods, but quota limitations cap offshore tonnage.
Raw material costs support the price floor. Scrap and pig iron prices have been firm, with ferrous scrap markets expecting $20-40/ton increases during winter months. Stable energy tariffs and managed melt shop operations have kept production costs predictable, allowing mills to maintain pricing discipline.
The HRC market is supply-driven, not demand-driven. Mills maintain pricing power through tariff protection and production discipline. Buyers should monitor Section 232 policy developments closely any policy change could significantly shift the price equilibrium. For near-term needs, expect prices to remain in the $1,000-1,200/st range.