HRC's technical chart shows a textbook uptrend with higher highs and higher lows intact since the Q4 2025 trough near $850/ton. The move above $1,150 resistance in late May confirmed the resumption of the uptrend, and Monday's surge to $1,195 puts the psychological $1,200 level within striking distance.
The 14-day RSI is at 62, comfortably in bullish territory without being overbought, suggesting further upside potential. The 50-day moving average at $1,050 has provided reliable support throughout the uptrend, with each test serving as a buying opportunity. The 200-day MA at $950 confirms the long-term bullish structure.
The major resistance level is $1,300, representing the 2023 highs. A break above $1,300 would be technically significant, signaling a new all-time high (adjusted for mill pricing changes) and suggesting the structural factors supporting the market are intensifying rather than moderating.
The price action is more consistent with a structural repricing than a cyclical spike. Unlike previous HRC price surges that collapsed quickly (e.g., 2021's run to $1,950 followed by a crash to $650), the current move is supported by genuine demand growth, tariff-protected domestic capacity, and disciplined mill behavior. The fundamentals suggest the $1,000 floor that was established in 2024-2025 is becoming the new baseline.
The structural uptrend in US HRC means waiting for a significant pullback is a risky strategy. The $1,050-1,100 zone has proven to be strong support — if HRC tests that level, it represents a buying opportunity. For immediate needs, accept current pricing as the 'new normal' and focus contract negotiations on delivery flexibility and quality guarantees rather than price reductions.